Archive for August, 2009

Premier League Preview 09/10

Friday, August 14th, 2009

Well it’s that time of year again where us football fans can begin to get excited as the Premier League gets under way in a matter of days and for those of us interested in having a little flutter, we can try and find some antepost value bets to keep us with that added interest for the entire season.  With the majority of the transfers probably completed by now it is probably the right time to have a look at each team and try and find out a market where we can try and swindle a little profit so here goes…

Arsenal, current price 9/1.

Currently the team most will have as favourites to break the ‘big four’ finishing positions of recent years but they are definitely not to be underrated.  Many will see the loss of both Adebayor and Toure to Manchester City many will see as a big negative for Arsenal, and although I would agree with the Toure argument, the loss of Adebayor will merely give Van Persie the room to show his true class and with Eduardo now back in full flow, this pairing may well be the highest scoring duo of next season (if they both stay fit that is) and with the likes of Fabregas (if he does not go to Madrid) and Arhavin in midfield, Arsenal definitely have the tools to put in a challenge for the title and for me any price around 4/9 for them to finish in the top four represents real value, even if the price might seem a bit short for most.

Aston Villa, current price 200/1

The loss of Martin Laursen will be a big blow to Martin O’Neill’s defense as he looks to repeat his teams’ great start to last years Premiership campaign.  Gareth Barry has also left in favour of the big money move to Manchester City, but in Stewart Downing they have the perfect replacement and with England U21 star Fabian Delph also after signing over the Summer, O’Neill’s squad (although small) is certainly packed with quality and with most of their star players under the age of 25, they are ones to watch for the future, but realistically fans should be happy with a Europa Cup spot come the end of the season.

Birmingham City, current price 2500/1 (Evs to be relegated)

After coming straight back up to the Premier League, Birmingham are third favourites to go straight back down again and many will see the Even money available as a decent bet, but don’t write them off too quickly.  Their defensive record last year was second to none, going about promotion the opposite way to eventual winners Wolves, and bearing in mind they have brought in Joe Hart in goal and Scott Dann to further improve their defense, it is not impossible that even the top teams will find it hard to break them down and I wreckon they are a decent bet to stay up.

Blackburn Rovers, current price 1500/1 (7/1 to be relegated)

Selling star striker Santa Cruz to Manchester City meant that Blackburn had a bit of spare cash lying about this Summer and their signings have certainly been interesting as they have placed their hopes in 2 young players who are both hotly tipped as being the next ‘big thing’.  In midfield they have signed Steven N’Zonzi, dubbed the next Patrick Viera no less, and up front they have signed Croatian Nikola Kalinic from Hadjuk Split fotr £6m.  Throw in a few free transfers and a few loan spells and Blackburn have certainly kept some profit from selling their star man, but that said, they would have to spend a lot more to better any finishing position over mid-table but that said, if the new players do work out they could well be worth a bet to finish in the top half of the table.

Bolton Wanderers, current price 2000/1 (5/1 to be relegated)

Bolton had a relatively quiet Summer on the transfer front so far but they are linked with a few names that would improve most squads.  First up is Paul Scholes, and although he is definitely in his twilight years, his quality was still there to be seen whenever he did make an appearance last season.  Kevin Nolan and Damien Duff are also rumoured to be departing Newcastle as well as Miguel Andel Angulo from Valencia.  Whatever changes they do make to their squad, they will probably make little difference to their finishing position, which will no doubt be somewhere between 11th and 16th, like it always is.

Burnley, current price 2500/1 (8/13 for relegation)

Hot favourites to go down and frankly it really is hard to disagree with this fact and as short a price as it is, it really does look like the banker bet of the season.  They may not come last but it is just too hard to see a team who finished 5th in the Championship last year to be consistantly better than 3 other teams, especially when their biggest signing so far has been Steven Fletcher from Hibernian.  I may eat these words come the end of the season, and if they stay up I will, which is why I shall keep this short.

Chelsea, current price 2/1

Apart from being linked with a lot of high-profile names, Chelsea have been really quiet this Summer, probably because they already have one of the best squads in Europe.  We all know they are a class side and if they can stay injury free, they will push Manchester Utd all the way this year.

Everton, current price 200/1

Everton have also has a fairly quiet few months on the transfer market with their highest profile moves probably being Luke Garbutt and Shkodran Mustafi, hardly two household names even for the most avid football fan.  Speculation is still rife over Lescott’s transfer request, with Manchester City seemingly putting in an improved bid every day, but Moyes seems to be keeping to his word and is refusing to sell, safe in the knowledge that Lescott will still put in 100% as he looks to secure an England place.  A Top 6 place is their main aim again this year, but with Manchester City, Tottenham, and Aston Villa all trying to achieve the same thing, it may just be Everton who have to give way.

Fulham, current price 750/1 (12/1 for relegation)

Will be looking for a repeat of last years performances, especially in defense, but with Andy Johnson their only real striker of note, Fulham will once again be looking to Danny Murphy and Clint Dempsey to provide goals from midfield, and if the pair stay fit for the season, there is no reason why they won’t finish in the top half of the table.

Hull City, current price 2500/1 (5/6 to be relegated)

Heroes for the first part of last season, found out by the end, Hull City will be hoping that record signing Jimmy Bullard will be back fit as soon as possible and with Stephen Hunt also after signing from Reading, Hull’s midfield will certainly be improved from that of last season so one would think that an improved team will improve on its previous finishing position, however, in this case, I fear the worst and along with Burnley, they shall go down.

Liverpool, current odds 7/2

At times last year Liverpool looked like real contenders, and had they not struggled with consistency (especially against the ‘weaker’ teams) they might well have taken the title from Manchester United.  That said, they did not, and despite signing Glen Johnson and Alberto Aquilani this year, their squad just is not strong enough to contend again and don’t be surprised if you see a 5 or 6 beside their name come the end of May.  This is probably a tad harsh, I know, but the loss of Alonso will probably just be too much..

Manchester City, current odds 14/1

THE gamble pre season due to their massive spending and on paper they look like a decent team - the big question being whether they can play together, and if they can then there is no reason why they should not break into the top 4.  However, history has shown that it takes time for players to gel and we should get a good indication of City’s strength after their first few games, which, like their team look good on paper.  Anything less than three wins and they would be a worth a punt to finish outside the top 6.

Manchester United, current odds 2/1

All eyes will be on Man Utd’s midfield this year as they look to fill the gap left vacant by Ronaldo.  Although not a natural replacement for Ronaldo, Valencia is still a quality player and Ferguson will be looking to the likes of Nani to step up and deliver on the creative side of things.  Michael Owen has played well pre-season and if their mid-field can cope with the loss of Ronaldo there is no reason why they cant repeat last years success.

Portsmouth, current odds  500/1 (2/1 to be relegated)

Massive debt and the loss of all of your best players - hardly the best preparation for a season.  The loss of Johnson and Crouch will cripple Portsmouth this year as no real replacements have been brought in.  It really does look glum for Pompey fans, but from a punters point of view, they offer serious value to go down and 2/1 really is a cracking price.

Stoke City, current price 2000/1 (10/3 to be relegated)

Another team who were quiet in the transfer market and will probably be fairly quiet on the pitch as well are Stoke.  Nothing special but probably good enough to stay up, not because they are good, but because there are 3 or 4 teams worse.

Sunderland, current price 1000/1 (8/1 for relegation)

The signings of Fraizer Campbell and Darren Bent will greatly strengthen Sunderlands attacking abilities and with the like of Malbranque and Richardson in midfield, they certainly have the creative talent to compliment their new strike force and if they get a good run injury free they might just sneak into the top half of the league.

Tottenham Hotspur, current price 100/1

With ‘Arry now at the helm, we have seen a complete turnaround of fortunes at Spurs.  New signings Sebastien Bassong and Peter Crouch should both slide in nicely to Redknap’s setup and they have no excuses not to challenge for a top 6 spot this year and they will be my cheeky punt of the year to sneak into the top four at Liverpool’s expense.  You heard it here first.

West Ham, current price 500/1 (12/1 for relegation)

No big names in or out pre season and no doubt they will plug away and grind out enough results to guarantee safety but any position around 13th would probably be accepted by most fans.

Wigan Athletic, current price 1500/1 (4/1 for relegation)

The loss of Valencia and Cattermole will more than likely be felt and just like West Ham, fans will probably be happy with a place around the 13 mark as well.

Wolves, current price 1500/1 (5/4 for relegation)

Impressive in winning the championship last year and new signings Doyle and Milijas will certainly strengthen the side and if Doyle can link up with Ebanks-Blake, then they are a decent bet to stay up and may even ‘do a Hull’ and find themselves up the top end of the table.  Don’t be surprised if they rumble a few feathers throughout the season.

USPGA Preview

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

This years USPGA championship promises to be an absolute corker of an event.  Not only do we have an extra-long course to challenge the players, but also probably the toughest gree-side array of traps that we have seen in an American major, meaning that even the best scramblers in the game will struggle to shoot low if they are struggling with their irons.

With the course playing so long, most people will probably look for the big hitters when picking their winner, but I would argue that it is greens in regulation and accuracy off the tee that are the big players this week, with the eventual winner being whoever gets hot with their putter.   Before I name a few players, I would just like to state that I can’t really see past a Woods victory so for that reason I am going to take the hit on prices just to avoid the Tiger, so all of these are in the w/o Woods market.

First up is mr nearly, Sergio Garcia.  In his prime he would be around the 16/1 mark in this market but with his current lapse in form he now double that price at 33/1 and at this price he represents a great value bet and he will be my big bet this week.  On form there is no player better tee to green (Woods included) and if he ever finds out how to use a putter he would be unstoppable.  Hopefully this week his solid iron play will mean that he willl be there or thereabouts and I am basically taking a gamble on him making a few putts and keeping his head.  I know this is not the most re-assuring tip that you will ever read, but at the price he is well worth a pop.

Second up is Luke Donald.  Having finish T5 in this years British Open he has shown that he can handle the pressure at the top of the leaderboard at a major and his current world ranking of 24 would be much higher had he not sprained his wrist playing out of the rough in the US Open and been forced to undergo surgery.  Despite poorish results on tour this year, Donald has shown that he is one of the most solid players on tour and on current form we are again treated to an inflated price, and at 66/1, it is quite juicy indeed.

Third up is John Senden.  Currently top of the Greens in Regulation stats on the US tour and with a T2 a couple of weeks ago he is (unlike my last two names) a player in form who simply cannot be ignored with the course set up the way it is, especially as his price is a three figured one at 100/1.

With Harrington also coming back into form it would be rude not to mention him here so there it is.  Just on a personal note I shall also be backing Westwood, simply beacuse I have in every major for the past few years, and like Garcia, his time will come sooner rather than later.