In only its’ second year at the London Golf Club, The European Open is probably not the best tournament to use course history as a guide to picking your winner, but that said last years winner Ross Fisher might just be an exception to this rule.  Second last week to another man in great from, Paul Casey, Fisher has the game and the head to repeat last years victory (maybe not so emphatically as 7 shots again) and will no doubt be many pundits fancy this week and looks certain to start as a strong favourite.  That said, he is well worth a punt at anywhere near the 10/1 mark as if he were more renowned you would probably be looking at him going off around the 5/1 mark.

With the obvious pick now out of the way we can have a look at trying to find a bigger priced winner.  With three second places already this year and an eleventh place last week (which included a second round 77), talented Spaniard Gonzalo Fdez-Castano is well worth an e/w bet at anywhere around the 40/1 mark.  Despite a T59 finish here last year, his first round 4-under par 68 shows that he can score on this course if he puts his mind to it, and his 4 previous wins on the European Tour show that he can also handle the pressure associated with going well in a tournament.  With so many of the big names over in the US this week (including man of the moment Paul Casey) and so few of the ‘big names’ currently playing well I think he offers a great each-way bet and if he gets off to a good start I expect him to be there or thereabouts.

In the spirit of all good things coming in 3’s I am going to throw in Soren Hansen around the 40/1 mark again.  Although I usually like to throw in a big-priced player as my final selection, no-one really jumps out at me, so I shall so with the stats, and a T21 last week and T5 here last year is good enough for Hansen to get the nod over the rest.  That said I may still have something small on Paul McGinley at bigger odds as he can play here and it’s always nice to have the added interest of backing a home player.

For those of you interested, the starting 15 have just been announced.  The are as follows:

Leinster: 15 Isa Nacewa, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Chris Whitaker, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Malcolm O’Kelly, 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 3 Stan Wright, 2 Bernard Jackman, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 John Fogarty, 17 Ronan McCormack, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Simon Keogh, 21 Rob Kearney, 22 Girvan Dempsey.

Leicester: 15 Geordan Murphy (capt), 14 Scott Hamilton, 13 Ayoola Erinle, 12 Dan Hipkiss, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Sam Vesty, 9 Julien Dupuy, 8 Jordan Crane, 7 Ben Woods, 6 Craig Newby, 5 Ben Kay, 4 Tom Croft, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 George Chuter, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Julian White, 18 Louis Deacon, 19 Lewis Moody, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Matt Smith, 22 Johne Murphy.

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).

This years final promises to be an absolute corker of a match, with the teams so evenly matched that we are offering a scratch handicap for the game.  It is the classic consistent performers versus an in-form team scinario, meaning that it really is too hard to call with any great vigor.  One thing is certain though, if Leinster re-produce the form they showed in their semi-final victory over Munster, Leicester will have to come up with a season-best performance if they are to have any chance of taking the title.

Despite their recent victory in the Premiership, all Leicester have shown is that they can beat mediocre teams, and not even beat them well (their performance in the final is a good example of this).  Having said this, Leinster too have displayed similar qualities (their 6-5 victory in the quarter final is a good example) and it is clear that their good performances have been in conjunction with Brian O’Driscoll’s good performances.  However, O’Driscoll has already shown that he is a big-game player and at this moment in time is probably the best player in the world and it is this reason why I will be giving Leinster the nod over their rivals from across the water.

Leinster showed in the semi-final that their pack can match the best in the world but it is their great ball-carrying skills going forward that will help clinch it if O’Driscoll’s one-man-show is not enough to propel them to victory.  In Heaslip and Helson, Leinster have two monster threats and they will also look to this pair to guide them towards victory.  Leicester will probably look to Vesty and Dupuy to inspire their team, both of whom would probably make most people’s team of the season.

All of this said, from a betting perspective, I still think Leinster will do the business, but if their odds-on price is a bit off-putting, then why not have a look at our winning margins, where you can get Leinster to win between 1-5 points at 4/1, and this is probably the soundest bet in the game.  Personally, I feel that Leinster will give Leicester a good thonking as they are out to show that their win over Munster was no fluke and they are also the only Irish team to yet taste European glory, two factors which mean that they will be the hungrier of the two, a trait which I like in teams I back.

My bet:  Leinster to win 11-15 points @ 10/1. Easy money…