This years USPGA championship promises to be an absolute corker of an event.  Not only do we have an extra-long course to challenge the players, but also probably the toughest gree-side array of traps that we have seen in an American major, meaning that even the best scramblers in the game will struggle to shoot low if they are struggling with their irons.

With the course playing so long, most people will probably look for the big hitters when picking their winner, but I would argue that it is greens in regulation and accuracy off the tee that are the big players this week, with the eventual winner being whoever gets hot with their putter.   Before I name a few players, I would just like to state that I can’t really see past a Woods victory so for that reason I am going to take the hit on prices just to avoid the Tiger, so all of these are in the w/o Woods market.

First up is mr nearly, Sergio Garcia.  In his prime he would be around the 16/1 mark in this market but with his current lapse in form he now double that price at 33/1 and at this price he represents a great value bet and he will be my big bet this week.  On form there is no player better tee to green (Woods included) and if he ever finds out how to use a putter he would be unstoppable.  Hopefully this week his solid iron play will mean that he willl be there or thereabouts and I am basically taking a gamble on him making a few putts and keeping his head.  I know this is not the most re-assuring tip that you will ever read, but at the price he is well worth a pop.

Second up is Luke Donald.  Having finish T5 in this years British Open he has shown that he can handle the pressure at the top of the leaderboard at a major and his current world ranking of 24 would be much higher had he not sprained his wrist playing out of the rough in the US Open and been forced to undergo surgery.  Despite poorish results on tour this year, Donald has shown that he is one of the most solid players on tour and on current form we are again treated to an inflated price, and at 66/1, it is quite juicy indeed.

Third up is John Senden.  Currently top of the Greens in Regulation stats on the US tour and with a T2 a couple of weeks ago he is (unlike my last two names) a player in form who simply cannot be ignored with the course set up the way it is, especially as his price is a three figured one at 100/1.

With Harrington also coming back into form it would be rude not to mention him here so there it is.  Just on a personal note I shall also be backing Westwood, simply beacuse I have in every major for the past few years, and like Garcia, his time will come sooner rather than later.

With no European Tour event this week, my attention is turned to the US where we have the St Jude Classic taking place in Texas.  Defending champion Justin Leonard is second in the betting behind Phil Mickelson and despite Leonard’s impeccable record here (twice winner); I am going to look further down the field when it comes to picking a winner. 

Top of the pile is Germany’s Alex Cejka around the 80/1 mark.  T4 here last year and a respectable T23 last week Cejka is a man in form who like the course.  Backers of Cejka in recent weeks will be still recovering from his defeat in the Players Championship, where he shot a closing round 79 to finish in T9 after leading for most of the tournament.  This might be off-putting for some people, but his price around the 80/1 mark is enough to justify him being my big bet of the week, bearing in mind that he has won on tour before.  His 6 top 25 finishes this year are a further comfort for those who would be happy if he snuck into a place.

One player who has yet to win on tour but is certainly capable is American Michael Letzig and is definitely worth a punt around the 80/1 mark.  T14 here last year and T14 last week he is a player who has shown he can go close and it is probably the fact that he has yet to win that his price is so big.  He could have went really close last week bar his closing 75 and I would be very surprised to see him finish outside the top 20 this time round.  If he holds his form over the 4 days he may very well find himself around the top of the leaderboard and at 80/1 I will gladly take that.

To finish off the trio, I shall also have a go at Will MacKenzie around the 100/1 mark.  8th here in 07 and a top 10 finish are stats far too good to ignore when they are associated with a 3-figure price.  MacKenzie already has 2 top tens to his name this year and with any luck he can find himself there or there abouts come Sunday evening.

Hopefully we can go close again this week, and although Europe proved to be unsuccessful last week, Woods’ victory in America has yet again given us a return on our selections.  Let’s hope we can repeat this with a nice big-priced winner this week.

After a great first day last week, all of my selections eventually dropped down the leaderboard with not even one in contention come day 4. I am, however, putting this down to the weather over the weekend and am confident that at least one selection this week will make a return on my investment. Those who have been following this for the past few months (before most of it was deleted *Ahem*) will know that the balance sheet is still showing a healthy profit, so those of you new to here, please keep the faith!

Right, back to picking some golfers. Once again Ross Fisher heads the market, again around the 12/1 mark, but his admission that he was ‘tired’ last week (this info would have been nice on Monday) is enough to put me off, despite his solid record on the course and good form of late. I am instead drawn towards the 50/1 that is available for Jamie Donaldson. On a course which is relatively easy to score on, one must look for players in-form, or those who have a history on the course and Donaldson has both. A native of Wales, T15 here last year and a T4 in Portugal a few weeks ago is enough for me to think that 50/1 is too big for him and he will be my big bet this week.

Going along the same lines, (but alas not the same odds) I am going to have something on Welshman Stephen Dodd around the 25/1 mark. With three top tens in the last few weeks, there is no questioning his current form and despite never really doing well here, a man in form with good course knowledge is always going to be a danger and this is why he is worth a punt despite his short price.

Lastly, I am going to have a go at Peter Lawrie around the 80/1 mark. Although his T27 last week might not jump put of the page at you (nor his previous form this season), anyone with a keen eye will have noticed a golfer really enjoying his game last week, and more importantly a golfer striking the ball really well, which is why he is well worth something small just in case…

Across the water I can’t see past Tiger, despite his current form (or lack there of) but man of the moment Casey is also well worth a punt as he is probably the best golfer in the world on current form and 16/1 is far too big a price for a golfer associated with this sentence.

Apologies if this reads a bit rushed (it was), but rest assured there was plenty of thought and consideration put into the selections!

In only its’ second year at the London Golf Club, The European Open is probably not the best tournament to use course history as a guide to picking your winner, but that said last years winner Ross Fisher might just be an exception to this rule.  Second last week to another man in great from, Paul Casey, Fisher has the game and the head to repeat last years victory (maybe not so emphatically as 7 shots again) and will no doubt be many pundits fancy this week and looks certain to start as a strong favourite.  That said, he is well worth a punt at anywhere near the 10/1 mark as if he were more renowned you would probably be looking at him going off around the 5/1 mark.

With the obvious pick now out of the way we can have a look at trying to find a bigger priced winner.  With three second places already this year and an eleventh place last week (which included a second round 77), talented Spaniard Gonzalo Fdez-Castano is well worth an e/w bet at anywhere around the 40/1 mark.  Despite a T59 finish here last year, his first round 4-under par 68 shows that he can score on this course if he puts his mind to it, and his 4 previous wins on the European Tour show that he can also handle the pressure associated with going well in a tournament.  With so many of the big names over in the US this week (including man of the moment Paul Casey) and so few of the ‘big names’ currently playing well I think he offers a great each-way bet and if he gets off to a good start I expect him to be there or thereabouts.

In the spirit of all good things coming in 3’s I am going to throw in Soren Hansen around the 40/1 mark again.  Although I usually like to throw in a big-priced player as my final selection, no-one really jumps out at me, so I shall so with the stats, and a T21 last week and T5 here last year is good enough for Hansen to get the nod over the rest.  That said I may still have something small on Paul McGinley at bigger odds as he can play here and it’s always nice to have the added interest of backing a home player.

For those of you interested, the starting 15 have just been announced.  The are as follows:

Leinster: 15 Isa Nacewa, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Chris Whitaker, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Malcolm O’Kelly, 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 3 Stan Wright, 2 Bernard Jackman, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 John Fogarty, 17 Ronan McCormack, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Simon Keogh, 21 Rob Kearney, 22 Girvan Dempsey.

Leicester: 15 Geordan Murphy (capt), 14 Scott Hamilton, 13 Ayoola Erinle, 12 Dan Hipkiss, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Sam Vesty, 9 Julien Dupuy, 8 Jordan Crane, 7 Ben Woods, 6 Craig Newby, 5 Ben Kay, 4 Tom Croft, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 George Chuter, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Julian White, 18 Louis Deacon, 19 Lewis Moody, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Matt Smith, 22 Johne Murphy.

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).

This years final promises to be an absolute corker of a match, with the teams so evenly matched that we are offering a scratch handicap for the game.  It is the classic consistent performers versus an in-form team scinario, meaning that it really is too hard to call with any great vigor.  One thing is certain though, if Leinster re-produce the form they showed in their semi-final victory over Munster, Leicester will have to come up with a season-best performance if they are to have any chance of taking the title.

Despite their recent victory in the Premiership, all Leicester have shown is that they can beat mediocre teams, and not even beat them well (their performance in the final is a good example of this).  Having said this, Leinster too have displayed similar qualities (their 6-5 victory in the quarter final is a good example) and it is clear that their good performances have been in conjunction with Brian O’Driscoll’s good performances.  However, O’Driscoll has already shown that he is a big-game player and at this moment in time is probably the best player in the world and it is this reason why I will be giving Leinster the nod over their rivals from across the water.

Leinster showed in the semi-final that their pack can match the best in the world but it is their great ball-carrying skills going forward that will help clinch it if O’Driscoll’s one-man-show is not enough to propel them to victory.  In Heaslip and Helson, Leinster have two monster threats and they will also look to this pair to guide them towards victory.  Leicester will probably look to Vesty and Dupuy to inspire their team, both of whom would probably make most people’s team of the season.

All of this said, from a betting perspective, I still think Leinster will do the business, but if their odds-on price is a bit off-putting, then why not have a look at our winning margins, where you can get Leinster to win between 1-5 points at 4/1, and this is probably the soundest bet in the game.  Personally, I feel that Leinster will give Leicester a good thonking as they are out to show that their win over Munster was no fluke and they are also the only Irish team to yet taste European glory, two factors which mean that they will be the hungrier of the two, a trait which I like in teams I back.

My bet:  Leinster to win 11-15 points @ 10/1. Easy money…

This year’s Masters promises to be an absolute cracker, with Woods returning to form and so many of the top ten showing signs of form in recent weeks.  My only regret writing this is that I have been on holidays and had every intention of talking up Paul Casey’s chance before he won last week, but with his price now demolished and the chances of back-to-back wins so small I am going to overlook Casey as I try and repeat last year’s winning selection of Trevor Immelman.

Obviously Woods is the first name that jumps out at you but I still find it hard to ‘tip’ a golfer that is such a strong favourite (even if he does win).  Other obvious picks are Phil Mickelson, who has a great record at Augusta, and Padraig Harrington who is looking for his third major in a row and showed good form last week.  However, it is these three that top the market and for this reason I am going to look elsewhere.

On the back of a good week last time out in Houston, world number 13, Lee Westwood at 50/1 shall be my bet of the week.  Tied 11th here last time along with this tied third in the US Open last year, Westwood has shown that he has the mental capability to perform at a high level in major competitions.  If any further proof is needed then a look at his Ryder Cup record will show that he can beat the best.  His stroke average for 2009 so far is 70.04, the lowest of his career so far, and although the year is only 4 months old, a repeat of this average should see him sneak into a place (especially here as we are going 6 places) and a repeat of last week’s form (excluding his final round) should see him battling for the top spot, even if Tiger is on form.  For a small e/w bet I am also going to have a look at Louis Oosthuizen, whose form this season has been incredible and simply cannot be overlooked, especially at a whopping 150/1.

As always in the majors, there are plenty of extra markets to get the juices flowing and they have often come as a saviour to many a discerned punter.  For those who can’t see past a Woods victory but still fancy a winner at a big price, there is the W/O Woods market to have a look at.  The market that jumps out at me is Top Us player W/O Woods, with Mickelson heading the market at 2/1.  Although he is clearly a valid favourite on his course form, recent efforts have not been so great and with the market offering 4 places, there is still hope in making some profit even if he does show up.  One player who jumps out at me in this market is Pat Perez.  Currently  8th in the FedEx Cup standings, Perez is a player at the top of his game and when you look at some of the names ahead of him in the market (Couples and Perry spring to mind), in my opinion he is far too big a price and I would be truely surprised if he did not give you a decent run for your money.  With 1/4 the odds for the first four places, Perez at 40/1 represents a great opportunity to pick up some profit for the week.

After some success in recent weeks, the hunt for a decent Masters bankroll continues with the Madeira Island Open in Europe and the Transitions Championship in the US.  With many of the big names playing in the Tavistock Cup, both tournaments are wide open and this notion is mirrored in the betting with 14/1 and 12/1 favourites respectively (as I type), so we again find ourselves with a great opportunity of finding a big priced winner.  Unfortunately, some of the previous posts were mysteriously erased over Cheltenham, but I have been assured that this will not happen again, so here’s hoping that these words are not in vain again…

We shall start by taking a look at the Madeira Open in Spain, being played on the Seve Ballesteros designed Porto Santo course.  The fact that the event was moved from Santo De Serra renders the tournaments previous results pretty much useful and paves the way for those players in good form or from the surrounding area when making your selection.  That said, the two names that jump out at me are Rafael Cabrera Bello and Ignacio Garrido.  At 25/1 and 28/1 they find themselves firmly at the top of the market but you would be unlucky if you did not get a decent run for your money from at least one of them.  Both have been performing consistently all season and their top ten finishes in recent weeks should stand them well as they compete on familiar soil for the first time this year.  If 28/1 is still too short for you and you fancy having a cheeky go on an outsider then I suggest you take a look at Jean van de Velde at 100/1.  His 5 over par, tied 64th last time out might not exactly jump out of the page at you but with 3 steady rounds of 72, 71 and 69, a top ten finish was not out of the question if you overlook his third round 81.  Given the Frenchman’s history for erratic play this is perhaps expected, but 4 steady rounds this week could see very well see van de Velde in contention come Sunday, and at 100/1 he is perhaps a bit overpriced.

Across the water in America, the first name that jumps out is John Senden, who has finished 2nd here the last two years, and at a price of 50/1 this is form that cannot be ignored.  Pre-tournament favourite is Jim Furyk at 12/1 and although a very obvious pick, his proven track record when in form on US soil means that he will be my big bet this week.  Of the outsiders who have a good chance, I would lean towards DJ Trahan for much the same reason as I did for van de Velde - bar his opening round 77 he would have been battling for a top ten spot, and although this may not seem like title winning form, the fact that the majority of those players that made up that top ten are not playing, his price of 66/1 means that even a place will leave you in profit for the week.

Coming from a man who knows his stuff (allegedly!) here’s a run through the card of the opening day the Cheltenham Festival with a few tasty priced tips to chew on!

Supreme Novices Hurdle.

After all the waiting we are finally here. With all the country banking on Cousin Vinny to get them off to a flying start I suggest an e/w alternative here Copper Bleu at around 20/1 represents a cracking each way bet.He was facing an impossible task last time out trying to concede 17 pounds to Master Of Arts who is 5/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. The fast pace and ground on the soft side of good will be ideal for Philip Hobbs charge.

Arkle Chase

Paul Nicholls rates Tatenen as one of his bankers for the festival and if Tatenen had held on to win at Leopardstown over Christmas he would be as short as 7/4 here. After the Leopardstown race Nicholls claimed his horse had travelled over badly and didnt eat in the run up to the race if this is indeed the case Tatenen at 4/1 seems a cracking bet with doubts about the ground for a lot of his rivals here namely Planet Of Sound and Kalahari King who are better suited by hearing their hooves rattle.

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase.

A very tricky handicap chase preceeds the Champion Hurdle. Wichita Lineman has been very popular ante-post here but at 5/1 I think we will leave him for the likes of J.P. I suggest an eacy way investment on Lothian Falcon here of 10stone 2 his last run was over hurdles to try to protect his handicap mark and he could be very well in at the weights in a tricky event and at odds of around 16/1 he will do for me.

Champion Hurdle.

Binocular is many peoples banker of the meeting but at 6/4 the odds are very skinny for a horse who seemed to struggle to get up the hill last year after travelling like the winner coming down the hill. Paul Nicholls is naturally very optimistic about his runners but he seems very bullish about Celestial Halo here and after Katchit breaking the 5 year olds hoodoo on the race I put him forward as the each way value at 9/1. Ruby will make plenty of use of this fellow and try to take the finish  out of the short priced favourite. Celestial Halo is certain to stay up the hill like he did last year in the Triumph.

Cross Country Chase.

We all know the trainer to look for in these events. The Bruce Springstein loving trainer Enda Bolger. He has a very strong hand here and you would be mad to look beyond L’Ami or Garde Champetre. I find it very hard to split them. So get your wife involved in the Festival and let her pick for you. But rest assured the winner will be L’Ami or Garde Champetre.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle.

Willie Mullins will not hear about defeat for Quevega here and it may be crazy to oppose the shrewd Carlow handler but at 5/2 I don’t see much value in her. The toughest mare in the race has to be Chomba Womba and at 6/1 she is an outstanding bet with conditions to suit. She has been targeted at this race for a long time and this may well be her last race and you can be sure Nicky Henderson will have her fine tuned for this before she retires to the paddocks.

after a great day for the irish at cheltenham on tuesday with four winners lets see if we can help you all reinvest wisely on wednesday!

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

THE AMATEUR 4 MILE CHASE KICKS US OFF TODAY.AND I AM GOING FOR KORNATI KID HERE AT 8/1.HE IS A VERY SOUND JUMPER AND WILL GET EVERY YARD OF THE 4 MILES HERE AND THE BOOKING OF ROBBIE MCNAMARA HERE INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

BALLYMORE NOVICE HURDLE

I’M EXPECTING A VERY BIG SHOW HERE FROM A VERY BIG HORSE MAD MAX IS ABOUT 18 HANDS AND HE HAS LOOKED AWESOME SO FAR I CAN SEE THIS CHAP ONE DAY LINING UP IN A GOLD CUP AND 6/1 LOOKS A VERY FAIR PRICE COMING FROM A YARD IN GREAT FORM.

SUN ALLIANCE CHASE

I LIKE THE LOOK OF CARRUTHERS HERE AFTER A VERY GOOD FRONT RUNNING PERFORMANCE AT ASCOT HE WILL GET EVERY YARD OF THE TRIP HERE AND IF ALLOWED TO DICTATE THINGS FROM THE FRONT END THE 11/2 ABOUT HIM EVEN HAS ME PULLING UP THE FLOOR BOARDS TO DIP INTO THE RAINY DAY MONEY!

CHAMPION CHASE

WHAT CAN WE SAY ABOUT MASTER MINDED THAT HAS NOT ALREADY BEEN SAID THIS LAD COULD FALL AND STILL WIN.SO FOR A BET HERE WE NEED TO LOOK IN THE BETTING WITHOUT MARKET AND WELL CHIEF AT 4/1 COULD BE A STEAL. SURELY IF HE WASNT SHOWING HIS OLD SPARKLE AT POND HOUSE THEY WOULD NOT CONTEMPLATE RUNNING HIM HERE.

CORAL CUP

I COULD SEE THIS EVENT GOING TO SEVEN BARROWS THE POLOMOCHE SHOWED HIS WELL BEING IN A RECENT GALLOP AT KEMPTON WITH BINOCULAR AND NICKY HAS HAD THIS RACE AS HIS TARGET ALL YEAR AND 10/1 IS INVITING ME IN HERE.

FRED WINTER HURDLE 

ALEXANDER SEVERUS HAS BEN THE SUBJECT OF HEAVY SUPPORT SINCE HIS EYECATCHING RUN AT LEOPARDSTOWN AND IN WHAT LOOKS ONE OF THE WEAKEST RACES AT THE FESTIVAL I COULD SEE PLENTY OF IRISH PUNTERS REINVESTING IN THIS CHAP 5/1 AVAILABLE AT THE MOMENT SHOULD BE TAKEN AS I CAN SEE THIS FELLOW GOING TO POST AS SHORT AS 5/2.

CHAMPION BUMPER

AND NO LADS ITS NOT A QUESTION OF WHICH ONE OF WILLIES WINS HERE ITS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR DUNGUIB WINS HERE A PROPER HORSE TRAINED BY PHILP FENTON WHO KNOWS WHAT IT TAKES TO PREPARE A CHELTENHAM WINNER AFTER BEING WITH EDDIE O’GRADY FOR SO MANY YEARS.PHILIP HAS NOT TRIED TO HIDE HIS ADMIRATION FOR THIS HORSE AND AFTER A SPARKLING PIECE OF WORK LAST WEEK THIS FELLOW IS THE BET OF THE DAY WADE IN LADS WITH NO FEAR!!!